使用通用的极端值模型进行横截面安全评估方法:右转安全处理的案例
Chenxiao Zhang1, Yongfeng Ma2, Tarek Sayed3
1School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China; Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, Canada.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|December 29, 2024
概括
极端价值理论 (EVT) 增强了道路安全分析. 这项研究使用了横截面EVT方法来确认右转安全处理显著降低了碰撞风险和高严重性冲突.
科学领域:
- 交通安全工程 交通安全工程
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 极端价值理论 (EVT) 越来越多地用于事故风险估计和安全对策评估.
- 传统方法可能无法完全捕捉交通冲突和安全处理的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 提出和验证一种新的横截面方法来评估右转安全处理的有效性.
- 使用交通冲突数据应用通用极端值 (GEV) 模型.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种横截面的方法,将多个地点和时期的交通冲突结合起来.
- 使用了通用极端值 (GEV) 模型,将其视为虚拟变量,并包含了交通/严重性共变量.
- 对冲突指标 (TTC,PET) 和影响电动自行车与重型车辆相互作用的因素进行了空中视频数据分析.
主要成果:
- 在中国南京的两个信号交叉点实施了这种方法.
- 在GEV模型中,治疗后显著改善了安全性,包括减少了高严重性冲突.
- 横截面模型表明,由于安全处理,整体撞车风险较低.
结论:
- 拟议的横截面GEV方法有效评估安全处理.
- 右转安全处理通过减少严重冲突和碰撞风险,显著提高了十字路口的安全性.
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