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人类和奶牛中的沙门氏菌病的动态建模,温度和pH的影响

Herman Trazias¹, Maranya Mayengo², Jacob Irunde³

¹School of Computation and Communication Science and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), P.O. BOX 447, Arusha, Tanzania; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mbeya University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 131, Mbeya, Tanzania.

Research in veterinary science

|December 29, 2024

概括

沙门氏菌的传播受到温度和pH值的显著影响. 最佳的控制策略包括对水体进行消毒,彻底食物,以及适当储存食物以减轻疾病传播.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
数学生物学数学生物学
环境健康环境健康

背景情况:

沙门氏菌每年在全球造成数百万病例和死亡.
已知温度和pH等环境因素会影响病原体的生存和传播.

研究的目的:

开发和分析一个数学模型,评估温度和pH值对沙门氏菌传播动态的影响.
确定影响疾病传播的关键环境参数,并提出控制措施.

主要方法:

一种使用普通微分方程的机械分区模型.
下一代矩阵用于计算温度-pH依赖的复制数 (R_PT).
利亚普诺夫稳定理论,向后分叉分析,拉丁超立方采样 (LHS) 和部分等级相关系数 (PRCC) 用于动态和灵敏度分析.

主要成果:

确定了与人类和奶牛感染率成正比的关键传播参数.
确定的特定温度 (10°C-20°C,30°C-40°C) 和pH (>3.8) 范围显著影响沙门氏菌的动态.
数字模拟证实了模型可靠性,可信度区间为95%.

结论:

温度和pH值是沙门氏菌传播动态的关键因素.
建议在特定的温度范围和季节对水体进行有针对性的消毒.
倡导适当的食品处理实践 (和储存) 在所有pH值以控制疾病传播.

关键词:

数学模型是一个数学模型.沙门菌的感染情况灵敏度分析是一种灵敏度分析.温度温度是指温度.温度-pH依赖的复制号 R (PT)它们的pH值为pH.

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