中国煤矿的甲减排潜力和相关成本
Yating Kang1, Peipei Tian1, Jiashuo Li1
1Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China.
Fundamental research
|December 30, 2024
概括
中国可以通过减少煤炭生产和减排技术,到2060年大幅减少煤矿甲 (CMM) 排放. 预计随着碳价格上,CMM缓解将变得具有成本效益.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中国的煤矿是人为甲 (CH4) 排放的最大来源,是全球变暖的关键因素.
- 了解中国煤矿中甲减缓潜力和经济成本对于有效的气候战略至关重要.
- 现有的知识差距阻碍了为煤炭行业开发量身定制的甲 (CH4) 减缓方法.
研究的目的:
- 估计和预测中国省级煤矿甲 (CMM) 排放量,减缓潜力和相关成本.
- 在各种煤炭生产场景和减排技术下分析CMM缓解.
- 为中国应对气候变化的CMM缓解战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 煤矿甲 (CMM) 的动态排放因子的整合.
- 在分析中包括关键的减排技术.
- 在各种煤炭生产场景下建模,以预测未来的排放和成本.
主要成果:
- 到2060年,中国的CMM排放量与2021年的水平相比,可以减少65%-78% (10.9-13.1 Tg).
- 预计到2060年,废弃矿山的甲 (CH4) 排放量将超过活跃采矿的排放量,特别是在中国东北部.
- 目前,CMM缓解在经济上是不可行的,但随着二氧化碳价格的上,它可能会变得具有成本效益;内蒙古以更低的成本显示出显著的缓解潜力.
结论:
- 通过削减煤炭生产和减缓措施,到2060年可以实现显著的CMM排放减少.
- 缓解CMM的经济可行性与未来的碳定价机制密切相关.
- 有针对性的CMM减缓战略,特别是在内蒙古等地区,对于中国的气候目标至关重要.
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