瑞士与热有关的死亡率的季后预测
Maria Pyrina1,2,3, Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera4,5, Dominik Büeler1,2
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland.
GeoHealth
|December 30, 2024
概括
季后预报可以提前几周预测与热有关的死亡. 这种预警系统有助于减轻欧洲极端高温事件对健康的影响.
科学领域:
- 气候流行病学 气候流行病学
- 季后天气预报 季后天气预报
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 极端的热浪会导致严重的过度死亡率,就像在2018年和2022年在欧洲看到的那样.
- 季后预报 (2周至2个月) 提供了早期预警的潜力,但在热健康系统中未得到充分利用.
- 在次季节时间表上的区域热健康预警系统需要进一步评估.
研究的目的:
- 评估季后预测对预测与热有关的死亡率的潜力.
- 在次季节时间表上为瑞士开发和评估一个区域热健康预警系统.
- 将气候流行病学与季后预测相结合,用于追溯死亡率预测.
主要方法:
- 使用历史数据 (1990-2017年) 估计的温度死亡率关联.对于苏黎世和日内瓦.
- 使用偏差校正的2公里分辨率季后预测.
- 对于2018年和2022年的夏季,回顾性预测的每日与热有关的死亡率.
主要成果:
- 短暂的与热有关的死亡率峰值 (几天) 准确地预测到2周前.
- 长期的与热有关的死亡 (几周) 可以提前3-4周预测.
- 通过季后预测,准确地预测了与热有关的死亡率.
结论:
- 季后预报是热浪期间公共卫生规划的有价值,但尚未开发的工具.
- 这些发现支持中欧地区季节性热健康预警系统的发展.
- 在夏季热浪期间预测过度死亡负担是可行的.
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