开发和内部验证一种预后模型,用于预测性性发作在怀孕期间在妇女发作
Yanru Du1, Wenting Huang1, Ying Wang1
1Department of Neurology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Shangcai village, Ouhai District, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, P.R. China.
BMC pregnancy and childbirth
|December 30, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了WMU模型来预测性性发作在患有的孕妇. 与EMPIRE模型相比,WMU模型表现出优异的性能,在怀孕和产后期间提供了更好的风险预测.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 产科 产科 产科 产科 产科
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 会影响孕妇,造成发作的风险.
- 在患有的孕妇 (WWE) 中预测性-克隆性发作对于管理至关重要.
- 现有的模型在这个特定的人群中可能缺乏准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证孕妇WWE中强力克隆性发作的预测模型.
- 将新型WMU模型的性能与已建立的EMPIRE模型进行比较.
- 确定怀孕和产后发作的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 从中国的一家三级医院招募了271名患有的孕妇队列 (2010-2020年).
- 用单变量和多变量逻辑回归识别了性-克隆性的预测因子.
- 使用AUC,校准,DCA,NRI和IDI对WMU模型的性能进行了评估,并与EMPIRE模型对比.
主要成果:
- 在WMU模型中,年龄,发作前入院和最近的怀孕前发作被确定为关键预测因素.
- 与EMPIRE模型相比,WMU模型显示了明显更高的歧视 (AUC 0.76对0.639) 和更好的重新分类性能 (NRI,IDI).
- WMU模型显示了良好的校准,并在广泛的预测概率值中提供了最高的净收益.
结论:
- 开发的WMU模型在预测孕妇WWE的强力克隆性发作方面显示出有前途的表现.
- 与EMPIRE模型相比,WMU模型提供了更好的预测准确性.
- 外部验证是必要的,以确认WMU模型的通用性.
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