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从1912年到2050年,多甲的全球排放量

Yuyan Luo^1,2,3, Yechao Shen^2,3, Minghui Zheng^1,2,3

¹State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China.

Nature communications

|December 31, 2024

概括

多甲 (PCN) 的历史排放量达到468,014,主要来自产品的使用. 城市垃圾焚烧是2020年的主要来源,未来的PCN排放量预计将大幅波动.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
大气化学大气化学

背景情况:

多甲 (PCN) 是根据"斯德哥尔摩公约"规范的持久有机化合物.
了解PCN排放来源和趋势对于环境管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了估计历史的 (1912-1987年) 和非故意的 (2000-2020年) 多甲排放量.
为2020年制定一个全球高分辨率PCN排放清单.
预测未来的PCN排放量从2020年到2050年.

主要方法:

来自PCN生产和使用的历史排放估计.
从20个类别进行非故意排放评估.
随机森林回归建模用于未来的排放预测.
为2020年制定1公里×1公里的全球PCN排放清单.

主要成果:

历史PCN排放总量为468,014,其中96.6%来自产品使用,99.4%释放到大气中.
在2000年至2020年期间,非故意的PCN总排放量为11,534.
2020年,全球PCN排放量为293.5 (15.8公斤TEQ),主要来自西中亚的城市垃圾焚烧 (98.0%).
预计PCN排放变化范围从-29%到+347%.

结论:

从历史上看,PCN排放量一直很大,主要是由产品的使用驱动的.
城市垃圾焚烧是目前主要的PCN排放来源.
未来的PCN排放高度不确定,有可能出现重大波动.

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