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在预测未来气候条件下,极端热带气旋波浪高度的全球变化
Guisela Grossmann-Matheson1, Ian R Young2, Alberto Meucci1
1Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Scientific reports
|December 31, 2024
概括
气候变化将加剧热带气旋风险,导致更高的极端海洋波浪. 预测显示,到2050年,在大多数海洋盆地,除北大西洋和北印度盆地外,海浪高度将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将增加全球热带气旋的强度和频率.
- 由热带气旋风驱动的极端海浪对沿海地区和海上活动构成重大风险.
- 了解极端波浪高度的未来变化对于气候适应和风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化全球所有热带气旋盆地极端显著波高度 (SWH) 的预测变化.
- 在高排放场景 (SSP585) 下,估计100年回报期SWH中的1个,用于历史和未来时期.
- 提供首次对热带气旋产生的极端波浪条件预期变化的全球评估.
主要方法:
- 利用合成热带气旋轨迹数据库用于历史 (1980-2017) 和未来 (2015-2050) 时期.
- 从热带气旋轨迹生成风场,并采用计算高效的波浪模型.
- 估计在所有主要海洋盆地的历史和未来情景中,每100年回报期SWH为1年.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,东/西太平洋,南印度和南太平洋盆地100年SWH的增加将高达1.5米 (10%).
- 对于北大西洋盆地,没有观察到极端SWH的一致趋势.
- 在印度北部盆地,特别是孟加拉湾,发现极端SWH的统计显著下降.
结论:
- 预计到2050年,热带气旋产生的极端海洋波浪高度将在大多数主要海洋盆地增加.
- 存在特定的区域差异,一些盆地显示增加,而其他盆地,如印度洋北部,显示下降.
- 这项研究为了解和减轻气候变化对全球极端浪潮事件的影响提供了关键数据.
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