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美国监管洪水平原的安全发展悖论
Georgina M Sanchez1, Margaret A Lawrimore1, Anna Petrasova1
1Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
PloS one
|December 31, 2024
概括
洪平地政策可能会无意中增加洪水风险,因为它鼓励危险区域附近的开发. 一项全国性研究发现,大量开发集中在100年洪平原250米以内,这些地区的未来增长预计.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 美国的洪水平原法规规定了基于100年洪水平原指定的保险,开发和回购计划.
- 之前的研究集中在洪平开发上,但忽视了超越边界的政策影响.
- "安全发展悖论"表明,洪水平原政策可能会矛盾地增加洪水风险.
研究的目的:
- 进行与监管100年洪水平原相对的发展模式的首次国家评估.
- 检查与洪水平原相邻的250米区域内历史和未来的土地使用情况.
- 了解洪水平原管理政策对发展的意想不到后果.
主要方法:
- 国家对历史和预期发展模式的评估.
- 在100年洪水平原的250米缓冲区内开发的土地的空间分析.
- 检查国家,州和县级的趋势.
主要成果:
- 一个不成比例的集中开发的土地 (到2019年为24%或89,080平方公里) 存在于直接邻近100年洪平原.
- 这一趋势在全国,州和县级都是一致的.
- 预计的增长 (2020-2060年) 表示22%可能在100年洪水平原 (6,900平方公里) 的250米范围内.
结论:
- 洪水平原管理政策可能会造成"安全发展悖论",将开发集中在危险地区附近.
- 了解这些政策影响对于有效的土地利用规划和洪水减缓至关重要.
- 洪水平原附近的未来开发需要修订战略,以管理洪水风险及其后果.
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