全球农业温室气体排放:可持续减排的途径
Lidong Li1, Tala Awada1, Yeyin Shi1
1University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA.
Global change biology
|December 31, 2024
概括
由于森林砍伐减少,农业温室气体 (GHG) 排放量在1990-2021年期间下降,但预计将增加. 加快森林保护是减轻未来农业温室气体排放的关键.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 农业是全球温室气体 (GHG) 的重要来源和沉积点.
- 历史上,农业的强化导致了温室气体排放的增加.
- 气候智能农业为减轻这些排放提供了潜在的解决方案.
研究的目的:
- 分析农业活动对1990-2021年全球温室气体排放的影响.
- 使用深度学习模型预测未来的农业温室气体排放.
- 确定减轻农业温室气体排放的战略.
主要方法:
- 来自联合国粮食及农业组织 (粮农组织) 的综合全球数据 (1990-2021年).
- 采用结构方程建模来分析历史排放影响.
- 利用深度学习模型来预测未来排放的预测估计 (2022-2050年).
主要成果:
- 尽管畜牧业,肥料使用,作物残留和灌增加,但由于森林净损失减少了29%,农业总体温室气体排放量从11.50至10.89 GtCO2eq (1990-2021) 减少.
- 增加的牲畜数量推动了CH4和N2O排放;肥料,作物残留物和灌主要增加了N2O.
- 如果不进行干预,预计到2050年排放量将增加到11.82 ± 0.07 GtCO2eq;减少森林损失的翻倍可能维持2021年的水平,而增加三倍可能将排放量减少到9.85 ± 0.07 GtCO2eq.
结论:
- 通过可持续强化和气候智能实践,可以实现农业温室气体排放的减少.
- 加快森林保护是缓解农业温室气体排放的关键平行努力.
- 未来的排放轨迹在很大程度上取决于森林保护率.
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