巴西环境温度和登革热住院情况:10年间的病例时间序列分析
Rafael Lopes1,2, Xavier Basagaña2, Leonardo S L Bastos3
1Instituto de Física Teórica - IFT, UNESP, São Paulo, Brazil.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|January 1, 2025
概括
高温显著增加了巴西登革热住院的风险. 这种短期的热效应是立即的,特别影响女性和老年人,突出了严重的公共卫生问题.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和气温上升,全球登革热传播正在升级.
- 虽然对登革热的长期气候影响已知,但热量对疾病严重性的短期影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 这项研究通过量化环境温度对巴西登革热住院风险的直接影响来解决知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查环境温度与巴西登革热住院风险之间的关联.
- 量化与不同温度暴露相关的登革热住院的相对风险 (RR).
- 探索与温度相关的登革热住院风险的区域差异和人口差异.
主要方法:
- 利用来自巴西 (2010-2019) 的每日登革热住院数据和平均环境温度.
- 使用一个用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 设计的案例时间序列设计.
- 估计的剂量反应和延迟反应关系,以评估温度对登革热住院病人的影响,在国家和地区.
主要成果:
- 从2010年到2019年,共有579,703例登革热住院病例被记录在案.
- 在全国范围内,高环境温度与登革热住院风险有显著的积极关联.
- 极端高温 (第95百分位) 增加了住院的风险RR=3.47,主要是由于即时的温度影响 (滞后0),女性和65岁以上的个人观察到更高的风险.
结论:
- 短期暴露于高环境温度是增加登革热住院治疗的重要风险因素.
- 热量对登革热严重性的直接影响在巴西大多数地区都很明显,脆弱人群的差异显著.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要采取公共卫生干预措施,以减轻因短期高温事件而加剧的登革热风险.
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