积极道路安全的实时风险估计:利用Waymo AV传感器数据与层次化的贝叶斯极端值模型
Mohammad Anis1, Sixu Li1, Srinivas R Geedipally2
1Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|January 1, 2025
概括
本研究引入了使用极端价值理论 (EVT) 和自动驾驶汽车数据的新实时交通风险模型. 先进的模型准确地估计了近乎失误的事件,改进了交通安全分析.
科学领域:
- 交通安全工程 交通安全工程
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 自主系统 自主系统
背景情况:
- 传统的交通风险评估依赖于历史事故数据,这些数据可能无法有效地捕捉实时风险.
- 现有的方法往往缺乏整合各种道路几何形状,碰撞模式和2D车辆动态.
- 自动驾驶汽车传感器数据为近乎失误事件检测提供了一个高保真源.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证使用极端值理论 (EVT) 的实时交通风险估计框架.
- 将二维车辆动态和道路特征整合到近乎撞车风险评估中.
- 提高自动驾驶和传统车辆交通安全分析的准确性和通用性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自Waymo运动数据集的2D碰撞时间 (TTC) 接近失误指标.
- 应用单变量通用极限值 (UGEV) 分布模型与块最大 (BM) 采样.
- 在具有随机参数 (HBSRP) UGEV模型中的非静态层次贝叶斯结构中,作为共变量内置车辆动态.
主要成果:
- 与其他方法相比,HBSRP-UGEV模型表现出优越的性能.
- 观察到偏差信息标准 (DIC) 降低了6.43-10.56%,特别是在短期流量段.
- 包括动态车辆行为和随机效应在内显著提高了实时交通风险估计.
结论:
- 开发的通用实时EVT模型为网络层面的交通安全分析提供了精确和可适应的工具.
- 这种方法弥合了智能运输系统中主动和被动安全措施之间的差距.
- 该框架通过考虑车辆异质性和动态行为,提供了一种可靠的估计交通风险方法.
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