从中国的证据来确定重大道路交通事故的因果因素识别和动态模拟:一个高阶混合方法设计
Chuntong Dong1, Yulong Pei1, Jing Liu1
1School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|January 1, 2025
概括
减轻重大道路交通事故 (MRTA) 需要了解复杂的原因. 综合控制策略,特别是全面的控制策略,在减少伤亡方面最有效.
科学领域:
- 道路安全研究 道路安全研究
- 事故原因分析分析事故原因分析.
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预措施
背景情况:
- 大型道路交通事故 (MRTA) 给全球安全带来了重大挑战.
- 复杂的MRTA因果机制阻碍了有效的预防策略.
- 对因果因素的系统调查对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地研究MRTAs复杂的因果机制.
- 开发和应用一个创新的混合方法设计用于事故分析.
- 评估各种控制策略的有效性,以减轻MRTAs.
主要方法:
- 一个高阶的嵌入式混合方法设计,结合了定性和定量分析.
- 对95份调查报告进行了理论分析,以确定因果因素.
- 决策实验和评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 和系统动力学 (SD) 建模用于相互作用和影响分析.
主要成果:
- 确定并分为五个层次的MRTA的因果因素:驾驶员错误,车辆/道路/环境,监督缺陷,组织管理/文化以及外部因素.
- 在这些因果层次之间和内部存在复杂的相互作用.
- 综合控制策略,特别是各级全面的控制策略,在减少MRTA伤亡方面明显优于单一策略.
结论:
- 防止MRTA需要利益相关者的共同责任和明智的资源配置.
- 避免过度依赖针对特定因素的干预措施;专注于综合方法.
- 该研究为未来的MRTA预防政策提供了方法论基础和证据.
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