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美国44个城市的温度,暴力犯罪,气候变化和脆弱性因素
Seulkee Heo1, Hayon Michelle Choi2, Jesse D Berman3
1School of the Environment, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.
Environment international
|January 1, 2025
概括
每天高温与暴力犯罪增加有关,特别是在空调较少或绿色空间较少的城市. 气候变化可能会加剧这种与热量相关的暴力行为,强调需要有针对性的适应战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 生物学和心理学理论表明,热量会影响侵略性.
- 以前的研究经常使用长期数据和线性模型来研究温度与犯罪的关联.
- 日常影响和温度与犯罪之间的非线性关系需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 检查美国不同城市每日夏季气温与暴力犯罪之间的非线性关系.
- 确定城市级特征如何改变温度对暴力犯罪的影响.
- 评估气候变化对与高温有关的暴力行为的影响.
主要方法:
- 观察性研究分析了44个城市 (2005-2022) 的每日夏季气温 (五月至九月) 和暴力犯罪数据.
- 计算了每日温度异常,并使用了通用增值建模来估计相对风险 (RRs).
- 研究的非线性关系 (J形,反向J形,线性) 和城市特定的风险因素.
主要成果:
- 一个反转的J形关系是最常见的,在极热以下的高温下,犯罪率增加.
- 总体而言,暴力犯罪在高温 (90比50百分位数) 时增加了3%,在温和温度 (50比10百分位数) 时增加了4%.
- 在度较低,中位温度较高,绿地更多,空调普及率较高的城市,风险较低;在显著的温度异常的情况下观察到更高的风险.
结论:
- 每天高温与暴力犯罪增加有关,因地点和城市特征而有所不同.
- 气候变化,温度异常的上升表明,可能会增加与热有关的暴力.
- 城市层面的社会和环境因素影响脆弱性,为预防暴力的气候变化适应战略提供信息.
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