在患有心血管疾病的老年患者中,拔牙期间发生不良事件的预测性风险因素
Shaojun Ma1, Xu Chen1, Yurun Zhai1
1Department of Geriatrics, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
Annals of medicine
|January 2, 2025
概括
一个新的预测模型确定了11个因素,以评估心血管疾病的老年患者在拔牙期间的不良事件风险. 这种工具有助于管理这个弱势群体的风险.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 牙科手术 牙科手术
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
背景情况:
- 拔牙带来心血管事件的风险,特别是在老年人中.
- 目前没有临床工具可以预测牙拔牙过程中的不良事件 (AE).
- 患有心血管疾病 (CVD) 的老年患者代表了牙科手术期间AEs的高风险群体.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种预测模型,用于预测心血管疾病的老年患者在拔牙过程中发生的不良事件.
- 在这个患者群体中确定与AE相关的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 预期招募774名患有心血管疾病的老年患者 (≥60岁) 进行牙拔除.
- 收集和分析62个潜在的风险因素,包括一般,临床和外科特征.
- 使用逻辑回归的预测模型的开发,包括单变量和多变量分析与逐步选择.
主要成果:
- 建立了一个预测模型,结合了11个重要因素,如年龄,血压,中风病史和心理健康状况 (一般健康问卷28分).
- 该模型表现出良好的预测性能,测试组的曲线下的面积为0.893,验证组的面积为0.857.
- 发现的关键预测因素包括精神状态和血压,突出了它们在拔牙过程中对异常事件的关键作用.
结论:
- 一个具有11个临床因素的验证预测模型有效地评估了心血管疾病的老年患者在拔牙期间发生意外事件的风险.
- 开发的诺米图为临床医生提供了一个有价值的工具,用于预测和管理这种高风险组的潜在不良事件.
- 精神状态和血压是影响牙拔牙患者不良反应预测的关键因素.
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