降低中国煤炭发电厂实现碳中和的过渡成本
Rui Wang1, Wenjia Cai2, Ryna Yiyun Cui3
1Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|January 2, 2025
概括
优化中国的煤炭电力转型途径可以节省数十亿美元,并增加减排,而无需增加成本. 探索各种缓解技术可确保实现碳中和目标的成本有效的煤炭逐步淘汰.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境科学环境科学
- 减缓气候变化减缓气候变化减缓
背景情况:
- 中国的煤电行业面临着巨大的压力,需要去碳化,以实现碳中和目标.
- 为了减少煤炭发电排放,存在多种技术和运营策略,但它们的成本效益各不相同.
研究的目的:
- 分析不同煤炭发电转型途径的经济影响,这些途径实现了相同的累积碳排放减少目标.
- 评估与各种减缓技术及其在中国煤炭船队中的部署 (同时或顺序) 相关的成本.
主要方法:
- 对4200多家中国煤炭厂应用的工厂级动态优化模型的开发.
- 模拟过渡途径,包括灵活运行,生物质联合燃烧,碳捕获和储存以及强制退役.
主要成果:
- 在深度脱碳的场景下,大多数中国的煤炭厂可以整合多种减排技术,减少排放并以更低的总体成本自然退役.
- 优化转型途径可以为固定减排目标带来大量的成本节约 (超过7000亿美元).
- 替代途径可以在不产生额外成本的情况下显著提高累计减排率 (从30%降至50%).
结论:
- 煤电转型路径的战略优化对于中国经济有效的脱碳化至关重要.
- 多种缓解技术的整合提供了一种灵活和经济的煤炭淘汰方法,同时保持电网稳定性.
- 调查结果为制定政策的人士提供了有价值的见解,他们设计了中国的碳中和战略和煤炭淘汰计划.
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