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在一个热带社区,气候驱动了长期的雄生产

Adriana Uquillas¹, Nathaly Bonilla¹, Stephany Arizala²

¹Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Av. Ladrón de Guevara E11-253, CP 17-01-2759, Quito, Ecuador.

Scientific reports

|January 3, 2025

概括

在热带雨林中长期监测昆虫对于生态预测至关重要. 这项研究揭示了产量对温度和厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 事件敏感,这对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
热带生物学热带生物学
气候变化科学气候变化科学

背景情况:

长期的昆虫数据集很少见,特别是在热带地区,这阻碍了生态预测.
预测昆虫对环境变化的反应需要了解它们随着时间推移的种群动态.
是重要的生态参与者,它们的繁殖周期可以作为环境变化的指标.

研究的目的:

分析巴拿马热带雨林中雄性生产的长期趋势.
确定影响雄发病率和飞行活动的环境驱动因素.
在不同的气候场景下预测未来的产量.

主要方法:

利用了16年 (2002-2017) 来自155个物种的雄发病率数据,使用了恶心陷.
应用了一个季节性自动回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型来分析时间变化.
与月度最高温度和海面温度 (SST) 相关的产量作为厄尔尼诺南方振荡 (ENSO) 的代理.

主要成果:

雄性产量显示出明显的季节性组合和一致的4年周期,但16年来没有显著的长期趋势变化.
一个SARIMA模型解释了雄性产量的75%的变化.
男性产量与最高温度负相关,与SST (ENSO事件) 有正相关.

结论:

的雄性生产受到短期 (季节性) 和长期 (ENSO,温度) 气候变化的影响.
预测表明,虽然长期趋势可能保持稳定,但极端ENSO事件和高温可能会影响产量.
这些发现对于预测昆虫社区对热带生态系统持续全球变暖的反应至关重要.

关键词:

的繁殖方式的繁殖方式巴罗科罗拉多州科罗拉多岛气候变化气候变化气候变化厄尔尼诺的南方振荡类动物类动物带有外源因素的季节性自回归集成移动平均线.时间序列时间序列.热带雨林热带雨林热带雨林

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