香港子宫内膜癌发病率模式的演变:三十年分析与未来预测
Xinyue Ma1, Xiaoming Wu2, Jianqiang Du2
1Department of Medical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Heliyon
|January 3, 2025
概括
由于人口老龄化和生活方式变化,香港子宫内膜腺癌的发病率显著增加. 预测显示持续上升,需要公共卫生干预措施,用于早期检测和风险因素管理.
科学领域:
- 妇科瘤学 妇科瘤学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 子宫内膜癌的发病率显示出显著的地理和时间差异.
- 了解人口和流行病学驱动因素对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析三十年来香港子宫内膜癌发病率趋势.
- 评估人口变化和流行病学因素对发病率的影响.
- 预测未来的趋势和评估促成因素.
主要方法:
- 利用香港癌症登记处1992年至2021年的数据.
- 雇佣年龄-期间-队列 (APC) 建模以分析发生率模式.
- 应用贝叶斯式APC框架来进行未来预测和分解分析.
主要成果:
- 在1992年至2021年期间记录了19,214例子宫内膜癌病例.
- 发病率从每10万人/年的7.4增加到每10万人/年的31.0.
- 在所有年龄组,特别是50-65岁的人群中观察到显著的增长,预测到2030年将有1718例病例.
结论:
- 由于人口老龄化和不断变化的风险因素,香港子宫内膜癌的发病率正在上升.
- 公共卫生战略必须专注于早期检测和管理可改变的风险因素,如肥胖和生殖行为.
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