从2022年到2030年,肌缩性侧面硬化症的估计流行病例,来自国家ALS注册表的数据
Paul Mehta1, Jaime Raymond1, Theresa Nair1
1Office of Innovation and Analytics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis & frontotemporal degeneration
|January 3, 2025
概括
预计到2030年,美国的肌缩侧面硬化症 (ALS) 病例将增加10%以上. 这种增长,特别是在老年人和成年人中.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肌缩侧面硬化症 (ALS) 是一种致命的神经肌肉疾病,没有治愈方法.
- 准确确切地确定病例是具有挑战性的,因为ALS在美国不是一个必须报告的疾病.
- 国家ALS登记处采用了新的方法来估计ALS病例.
研究的目的:
- 估计2022年至2030年美国预计的ALS病例数量.
- 分析预测ALS患病率的人口趋势.
- 为ALS患者计划的资源分配提供信息.
主要方法:
- 从2022年到2030年对ALS患病率的回顾性和前性估计.
- 利用2018年国家ALS注册表数据进行预测.
- 按年龄,种族和性别分层预测病例.
主要成果:
- 预计2022年ALS病例估计为32,893例,预计到2030年达到36,308例 (增长超过10%).
- 预计66岁以上个体的病例将增加25%.
- "其他种族"类别的病例预计将增加15%.
结论:
- 预计的ALS病例反映了预期的美国人口变化.
- 由于疗法改善的生存率可能导致预测的低估.
- 结果强调了对ALS护理的有效资源配置的需要.
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