目前的食品贸易有助于减轻低收入国家的未来气候变化影响
Kushank Bajaj1,2, Zia Mehrabi3, Thomas Kastner4
1Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
PloS one
|January 3, 2025
概括
气候变化通过国内生产和全球贸易影响国家粮食安全. 考虑到气候对所有食品出口地区的影响,风险和收益在收入水平上有所不同.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
背景情况:
- 国家粮食供应安全依赖于国内生产和进口.
- 目前对粮食系统的气候变化风险评估往往忽视了对粮食供应地区的影响.
- 全球贸易动态显著影响国家粮食供应.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对国家粮食供应的潜在影响.
- 为了比较国内生产的影响与基于消费的影响 (包括贸易) 的影响.
- 分析气候变化如何影响不同国家收入水平的粮食安全.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球作物建模数据.
- 综合的当前国际贸易流数据.
- 评估气候变化影响在全球平均升温2°C以下.
主要成果:
- 当考虑基于消费的影响时,对53%的高收入国家和56%的中高收入国家而言,气候对国家粮食供应的影响加剧了.
- 根据基于消费的影响,60%的低收入国家和71%的中低收入国家减轻了气候影响.
- 许多国家依赖少数主要粮食出口国,这些国家作为气候变化影响的调解者.
结论:
- 为了国家粮食安全,应对气候变化风险需要全球视角.
- 考虑气候变化对国内生产和国际贸易伙伴的影响至关重要.
- 对粮食系统弹性的整体方法必须考虑到全球供应链的脆弱性.
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