通过梯度增强决策树来调查导致撞车逃跑事故的因素
Baorui Han1, Haibo Huang1, Gen Li1
1School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
PloS one
|January 3, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种渐变增强决策树 (GBDT) 模型,用于预测碰撞逃跑事故,其性能优于其他方法. 该模型确定了诸如碰撞类型,改善事故预防和安全分析等关键因素.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 碰撞逃跑事故造成了严重的公共安全问题.
- 预测犯罪者逃跑行为对于预防和调查至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉到撞车逃跑事件的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个渐变增强决策树 (GBDT) 模型,用于预测撞车逃跑事故中犯罪者的逃生行为.
- 将GBDT的性能与使用美国标准的其他分类方法进行比较. 事故报告采样系统 (CRSS) 数据集.
- 确定影响逃生行为的关键贡献因素和相互作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了美国的. 事故报告采样系统 (CRSS) 数据集.
- 使用渐变增强决策树 (GBDT) 算法开发了一个分类预测模型.
- 将GBDT与分类和回归树 (CART),随机森林和物流回归相比较.
主要成果:
- GBDT实现了卓越的性能,负日志概率最低 (0.282),错误分类率最低 (0.096),AUC最高 (0.803).
- GBDT 显示了高的计算效率 (LIFT 值为 4.087).
- 确定了碰撞类型和与交通路径的关系作为重要因素,揭示了以前未突出显示的信息.
结论:
- 与传统方法相比,GBDT模型是一种更准确,更有效的工具,用于预测碰撞逃跑事故.
- 该模型识别隐藏因素和可变相互作用的能力为事故分析提供了宝贵的见解.
- 这些发现对预防碰撞逃跑事故,交通安全分析和工程应用有实际意义.
相关概念视频
Quantifying and Rejecting Outliers: The Grubbs Test
1.3K
Sometimes, a data set can have a recorded numerical observation that greatly deviates from the rest of the data. Assuming that the data is normally distributed, a statistical method called the Grubbs test can be used to determine whether the observation is truly an outlier. To perform a two-tailed Grubbs test, first, calculate the absolute difference between the outlier and the mean. Then, calculate the ratio between this difference and the standard deviation of the sample. This...
1.3K
Survival Tree
37
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
37
Multiple Regression
2.8K
Multiple regression assesses a linear relationship between one response or dependent variable and two or more independent variables. It has many practical applications.
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
2.8K
Kaplan-Meier Approach
51
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
51
Regression Analysis
5.4K
Regression analysis is a statistical tool that describes a mathematical relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
In regression analysis, a regression equation is determined based on the line of best fit– a line that best fits the data points plotted in a graph. This line is also called the regression line. The algebraic equation for the regression line is called the regression equation. It is represented as:
5.4K
Truncation in Survival Analysis
122
Truncation in survival analysis refers to the exclusion of individuals or events from the dataset based on specific criteria related to the time of the event. This exclusion can happen in two primary forms: left truncation and right truncation.
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are...
122


