在儿童和青少年中开发和验证基于诺米克图的模型,以预测在明年内发生的初级高血压:回顾性队列研究
Chenlong Qin1,2, Li Peng3, Yun Liu1,2,4
1Department of Medical Informatics, School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Journal of medical Internet research
|January 3, 2025
概括
一种新的血型图准确预测了儿童和青少年患初级高血压 (PH) 的风险. 该工具可以识别家庭病史和禁食血糖等关键风险因素,帮助早期临床决策.
科学领域:
- 儿童心脏病学 儿童心脏病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 初级高血压 (PH) 对儿科和青少年群体具有重大健康风险.
- 儿童和青少年PH的有限预测模型阻碍了明智的临床决策.
研究的目的:
- 确定中国儿童和青少年PH的发病率和风险因素.
- 开发和验证基于名录的模型,用于预测明年的PH风险.
主要方法:
- 利用培训 (n=3938),验证 (n=1269) 和外部 (n=576) 队列进行模型开发和验证.
- 采用最小绝对收缩和选择操作员回归用于特征选择和多变量逻辑回归用于名ogram构造.
- 通过使用ROC曲线,一致性指数,校准和决策曲线分析来评估nomogram性能.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键的PH风险因素:性别,年龄,家族高血压病史,禁食血糖,LDL胆固醇和尿酸.
- 哺乳成为一种保护因素.
- 诺米图表显示出强大的预测准确性 (AUC范围从0.790到0.892) 和良好的临床实用性.
结论:
- 已经开发并验证了一种稳定可靠的诺姆图,用于预测儿童和青少年明年PH风险.
- 诺米图为初级保健机构的临床决策提供了有效,经济高效的支持.
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