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从多年的拉尼娜到强烈的厄尔尼诺的过渡是罕见的,但在全球变暖下增加了

Fan Jia¹, Wenju Cai², Tao Geng³

¹Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266000, China; Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao 266237, China.

Science bulletin

|January 3, 2025

概括

多年来的拉尼娜会推迟厄尔尼诺的发展,但温室气体变暖使过渡到强烈的厄尔尼诺事件更有可能发生. 这项研究澄清了ENSO在气候变化中的过渡.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
海洋学海洋学海洋学
大气科学大气科学

背景情况:

厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 显示了厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜阶段之间的不对称性.
拉尼娜现象经常持续存在,充电太平洋,并可能为随后的厄尔尼诺带来先决条件,从2020年到2023年.

研究的目的:

调查多年拉尼娜热量充电是否会增加强烈厄尔尼诺过渡的可能性.
评估温室气体变暖在长时间的拉尼娜现象后对ENSO过渡的影响.

主要方法:

分析赤道太平洋的海面温度 (SST) 和热带深度.
模拟海洋-大气合动力学和对流模式.
在高排放场景下进行模拟,以预测未来的ENSO行为.

主要成果:

尽管西太平洋的热量充电,但多年La Niña条件在中央赤道太平洋保持浅层热点和寒冷的SST.
这抑制了向东的对流,延迟了厄尔尼诺现象的发生和海洋与大气的合.
在高排放场景下,过渡到强烈的厄尔尼诺现象的可能性增加了两倍以上.

结论:

温室气体变暖增加了强烈的厄尔尼诺现象在多年的拉尼诺之后的概率.
在变暖的影响下,SST梯度的减弱和分层的增强影响了ENSO的过渡动态.
结果提供了对厄尔尼诺现象发展和气候变化下的ENSO变异性的预测见解.

关键词:

厄尔尼诺 - 南方振荡过渡期大气层深层对流活动大气层深层对流活动温室气体的变暖导致的温室气体变暖.多年来的拉尼娜现象.

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