未来的粮食价格将对农业市场价格和减缓成本变得不那么敏感
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David Meng-Chuen Chen1,2,3, Benjamin Bodirsky4, Xiaoxi Wang4,5
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. david.chen@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature food
|January 3, 2025
概括
全球粮食价格越来越受到运输和加工的影响,而不仅仅是农业成本. 高收入国家由于增值服务,农业政策对消费者食品价格的影响较小.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 食品系统分析 食品系统分析
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 在高收入国家,农业生产成本不到粮食总价格的一半,预计将在全球范围内下降.
- 增值组件 (运输,加工,营销,餐饮) 在食品价值链中越来越重要,特别是在向工业化食品系统的营养过渡期间.
研究的目的:
- 量化和预测136个国家和11个食品组的食品价格的附加值组成部分,用于家庭和远离家庭的食品消费.
- 分析消费者食品价格中的生产者份额下降情况,并根据商业常态和减缓气候变化的政策,模拟未来的价格情景.
主要方法:
- 使用了统计和基于过程的模拟框架.
- 对不同食品组和消费模式的食品价格的衍生和预计的附加值组成部分.
- 考虑政策影响的模拟未来消费者价格场景.
主要成果:
- 在各种食品中确定了消费者食品价格中的下降但差异化的生产者份额.
- 预计农业政策 (如温室气体税) 导致的食品价格上对于高收入国家的消费者来说不那么明显,这是由于附加值更高的因素.
- 观察到,预计低收入国家甚至在未来也会经历这种政策的更明显影响.
结论:
- 增值部门在决定消费食品价格方面发挥着至关重要的作用,特别是在发达经济体.
- 针对生产者的气候和农业政策将对全球消费者食品价格产生不同的影响,低收入国家更容易受到影响.
- 了解整个食品价值链对于有效的粮食政策和价格稳定至关重要.
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