德国使用ARIMA模型的抗菌药物消费的长期预测
Lilly Josephine Bindel1, Roland Seifert2
1Hannover Medical School, Institute of Pharmacology, D-30625, Hannover, Germany.
Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology
|January 4, 2025
概括
这项研究使用ARIMA模型预测到2040年在德国的抗菌药物消费. 研究结果强调,对几种抗生素的需求日益增加,需要积极的医疗保健规划,以避免未来的药物短缺.
科学领域:
- 药物经济学 药物经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 抗菌药物短缺在德国构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 准确预测药物消费对于有效的医疗保健规划和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2040年在德国最常被处方的十种抗菌药物的未来消费情况.
- 评估抗菌剂长期消费预测的可信性和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 使用自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型,特别是ARIMA ((0,1,0) (随机步行与漂移),用于预测.
- 分析了历史处方数据,以模拟抗菌药物使用趋势.
- 评估短期 (5-10年) 和长期 (至2040年) 预测的可靠性和潜在差异.
主要成果:
- ARIMA ((0,1,0) 证明最适合捕捉整体抗菌药物趋势.
- 预计将增加阿莫西西林,谢福洛キシ,阿莫西西林,克拉夫兰酸,克林达米辛,阿齐思罗米辛,尼托福兰和西普罗夫洛克萨的消费量.
- 预计多克西环素,甲青素和硫甲-三甲的消费量下降,预测可靠性各不相同.
结论:
- 对抗菌药物消费的长期预测是可行的,对于解决潜在的供应短缺至关重要.
- 迫切需要通过这些消费预测来制定积极的医疗保健计划,以减轻未来的药物供应中断.
- 进一步的研究应该探索消费趋势,细菌耐药性和其他药物类别之间的联系.
关键词:
抗菌药物反症 (AMR) 是一种在阿里马,阿里马就是阿里马.抗菌药物是一种抗菌药物.抗生素 抗生素是一种抗生素.抗生素的处方 抗生素的处方抗生素管理的管理.消费抗微生物药物消费.阿尔兹内维尔诺登斯报告预测 预测 预测 预测德国 德国 德国 德国不理性的处方行为.理性的处方行为.监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督更多相关视频
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