开发和验证用于预测手术后发烧后结直肠病变的内镜下粘膜剖析后的诺米克图
Jiayu Qiu1, Yanhong Xia1,2, Yanxia Zhang1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Scientific reports
|January 4, 2025
概括
发烧是结直肠内镜下粘膜切割 (ESD) 后的常见并发症. 这项研究确定了瘤大小,手术持续时间,肌肉层损伤和穿孔作为ESD后发烧的关键风险因素.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 内視鏡外科手術 內視鏡外科手術
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 发烧是结直肠内镜下粘膜解剖 (ESD) 后的常见并发症.
- 识别风险因素和预测发烧对于患者管理至关重要.
- 目前对手术后发烧的预测模型有限.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定结直肠ESD后发烧的发生率.
- 为了确定与ESD后发烧相关的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证预测热风险的预测性名录模型.
主要方法:
- 对接受结直肠ESD的1096名患者 (2008年6月至2021年12月) 的回顾性分析.
- 多变量后勤回归用于识别独立的风险因素.
- 使用ROC,校准曲线,DCA和CIC.构建和验证一个预测名ogram.
主要成果:
- 在18.6% (204/1096) 的患者中出现发烧.
- 确定了独立的风险因素:较大的瘤大小,ESD手术时间>30分钟,肌肉层损伤和手术内穿孔.
- 在培训和验证队伍中,开发的诺莫грам表现出良好的性能和临床适用性.
结论:
- 瘤大小,延长的手术时间,肌肉层损伤和手术内穿孔是发烧后结肠直肠ESD的重要预测因素.
- 已建立的诺莫格拉姆模型提供了一个实用的工具,用于预测患有结直肠ESD的患者发烧风险.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助临床决策和患者护理策略.
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