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与中国的热浪相关的机制特异性伤害死亡负担在一个变暖的世界里
Jianxiong Hu1, Shaoli Huang2, Yulin Zhuo3
1Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control (Jinan University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Environment international
|January 5, 2025
概括
热浪显著增加伤害死亡率,特别是溺水死亡. 未来的预测表明,与热浪相关的伤害死亡人数大幅增加,特别是在中国西南部,需要采取适应策略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 热浪对非意外死亡率的影响得到了充分证实.
- 热浪和机制特定伤害死亡率之间的关联尚未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国热浪与受伤相关死亡率之间的关联.
- 在气候变化情景下,预测未来的热浪损伤死亡率的负担.
主要方法:
- 采用案例交叉设计,采用中国七个省份 (2013-2023) 257,267起伤亡事故和每日最高气温 (DMT) 的数据.
- 热浪被定义为连续两天或更长时间的热浪,DMT超过第92.5个百分点.
- 使用SSP5-8.5情景预测未来的死亡负担.
主要成果:
- 热浪日显示伤害死亡率增加了12% (95% CI: 10%,14%),溺水风险增加了22% (95% CI: 16%,30%).
- 在2013-2023年期间,热浪占伤害死亡总数的1.64%.
- 预计受伤死亡率的可归因分数将从2030年代的2.66%上升到2090年代的7.72%,在SSP5-8.5.5下,溺水AF将从4.60%增加到13.35%.
结论:
- 热浪是受伤相关死亡的一个重要风险因素,溺水是特别容易受到伤害的.
- 预计未来的气候变化将加剧因热浪造成的伤害死亡率的负担,特别是在中国西南部.
- 调查结果强调迫切需要适应战略,以减轻气候变化对预防伤害的影响.
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