21世纪表面紫外线辐射变化,从CMIP6模型推断出来:第一部分 - - 主要影响因素的演变
A Chatzopoulou1, K Tourpali2, A F Bais2
1Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Physics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece. achatzop@auth.gr.
概括
未来的太阳紫外线辐射水平取决于臭氧,气溶和云. 地球系统模型 (ESM) 在各种气候路径下预测这些因素的变化,显示到2100年臭氧恢复和气溶和表面反射率的显著变化.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 地球表面的太阳紫外线 (UV) 辐射受到臭氧,气溶,云和表面反射力的影响.
- 了解这些因素的未来变化对于评估紫外线辐射影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查从1950年到2100年的臭氧,气溶,云和表面反射率的预测演变.
- 通过使用地球系统模型 (ESM) 在三个共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 中分析这些变化.
主要方法:
- 利用ESM的CMIP6模拟,区分具有规定的和交互性的臭氧化学模型.
- 分析了1950-1960年,1990-2000年的十年变化,以及SSP1-2.6下SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5.5下的2090-2100年的预测变化.
- 与哥白尼号大气监测服务 (CAMS) 重新分析数据相比,近期 (2003-2012) 的验证模型输出.
主要成果:
- 具有互动臭氧化学的模型与CAMS数据对总臭氧列的数据更好地一致.
- 从本世纪中叶开始,预计的臭氧恢复在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5下观察到,但在SSP1-2.6.5下没有.
- 在气溶光学深度 (AOD) 变化中发现了显著的地理模式,极地地区的增加和工业区的逆转到2090-2100年. 由于海冰的退缩,表面反射率在高度上显著下降,云的修饰因素显示了度变化.
结论:
- 通过ESM模拟,可以对影响太阳紫外线辐射的因素的未来变化进行现实的估计.
- 该研究强调了交互化学方案在准确臭氧预测模型中的重要性.
- 气溶,表面反射率和云层的预测变化表明,在不同的气候变化情景下,太阳紫外线辐射的区域差异显著.
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