确保埃及的粮食主权和营养可持续性
Zdeňka Gebeltová1, Joseph Phiri2, Klára Bartoňová1
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic.
Heliyon
|January 6, 2025
概括
埃及 埃及 埃及 埃及
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 食品安全研究 食品安全研究
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 埃及严重依赖小麦进口,对粮食安全和经济稳定构成风险.
- 该国面临的挑战包括全球粮食价格上,不理想的农业用地和气候变化的影响.
- 预计气候变化的影响可能会使谷物产量减少6-15%.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化埃及对小麦进口的依赖.
- 确定影响小麦进口量的主要驱动因素.
- 提出提高国家粮食自给自足的战略.
主要方法:
- 利用指数分析和一个计量经济学模型.
- 分析了来自粮农组织,欧共体,CME,世界银行和经合组织的数据.
- 检查了小麦生产和消费的定量和质量指标.
主要成果:
- 尽管依赖进口,但埃及的粮食不安全水平仍然不变.
- 人口增长和蛋白质摄入量增加显著推动了小麦进口.
- 较高的小麦消费与小麦进口减少有关.
结论:
- 埃及必须使农业多样化,以减少用水密集型作物和提高灌效率.
- 应对气候变化影响对于维持国内谷物生产至关重要.
- 政策制定需要进一步研究非线性模型和定性因素.
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