使用MaxEnt建模分析气候变化对范霍尔1904年全球范围分布的影响
Sameh M H Khalaf1, Monerah S M Alqahtani2, Mohamed R M Ali1
1Faculty of Biotechnology, October University for Modern Sciences & Arts (MSA University), 6th October City, 12566, Egypt.
Heliyon
|January 6, 2025
概括
全球变暖正在扩大植物病原体Pseudomonas syringae的范围. 气候变化对农业产生影响,需要新的疾病管理策略来应对农作物中细菌感染的增加.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 微生物学 微生物学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 伪虫 (Pseudomonas syringae) 是一个重要的农业病原体.
- 在全球变暖下了解其生态动态对于粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查Pseudomonas syringae的当前和预计的未来分布.
- 确定影响其传播的关键气候因素.
- 为疾病管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 建模最大 (MaxEnt).
- 对物种发生记录和气候数据的分析.
- 模型验证使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS).
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出极好的预测能力 (AUC = 0.92).
- 温度,降水和湿度被确定为主要的气候驱动因素.
- 预计将P. syringae的地理范围扩大到极地地区.
结论:
- 气候变化对Pseudomonas syringae的分布有很大的影响.
- 预计农作物中细菌感染的增加.
- 迫切需要积极的疾病管理策略.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
18.0K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.0K
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
26
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
26
Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
1.3K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
1.3K
Global Climate Change
23.9K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
23.9K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
25
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
25
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
12
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
12


