不确定选择与不对称的信息:明确的证据和模两可是如何相互作用的?
Amir Hossein Tehrani-Safa1,2, Atiye Sarabi-Jamab3, Abdol-Hossein Vahabie4,5
1Control and Intelligent Processing Centre of Excellence, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
人们在部分模两可的情况下表现出决策偏见. 他们对积极证据的不确定性容忍度较低,对负面证据的不确定性容忍度更高,特别是当模两可的程度较低时.
科学领域:
- 决策心理学 决策心理学
- 认知偏见是一种认知偏见.
- 风险感知 风险感知
背景情况:
- 现实世界的决策经常涉及部分模糊性,信息不完整.
- 在做出选择时,个人必须平衡现有证据与未知的风险.
- 了解不确定性下的决策对于各种领域至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查个人如何在证据有利性和决策中的模两可之间进行权衡.
- 在部分模糊的情况下,识别人们对未知信息的感知和反应方式的偏见.
- 测量不同证据和不确定性影响的对模两可的态度.
主要方法:
- 一个3x3实验设计操纵了模两可的水平 (小,中,大) 和证据的有利性 (不对称的积极,中性,不对称的负).
- 77名参与者在这些操纵条件下完成了决策任务.
- 对模两可的态度被测量为每个实验条件.
主要成果:
- 在参与者对未知的感知中观察到显著的偏见.
- 参与者对缺少信息的反应与所提供的证据相矛盾.
- 根据证据的有利性,对模两可的容忍度有所不同:对积极证据的容忍度较低,对负面证据的容忍度较高.
- 这种偏见在含糊性较低的条件下最明显.
结论:
- 在部分模两可的情况下做出决策会受到认知偏见的影响,个人以一种可能与现有证据相矛盾的方式解释未知的信息.
- 初步证据的有利性会影响对模两可的容忍度,导致不同的谨慎程度 (对积极新闻更谨慎,对负面新闻更谨慎).
- 这些发现突出了证据,模糊性和人类判断和决策中的认知偏见之间的复杂相互作用.
更多相关视频
09:07Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
08:24The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
Published on: August 25, 2023
相关概念视频
Cause and Effect
Decision Making: P-value Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
Reason and Intuition
Frustration and Conflict: Avoidance-Avoidance, Double-Approach Avoidance
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
Decision Making: Traditional Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
