在肝癌查中开发预测模型和风险评分,用于自我评估和高风险人群识别:前性队列研究
Xue Li1, Youqing Wang1, Huizhang Li1
1Department of Cancer Prevention, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou Institute of Medicine, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 East Banshan Road, Hangzhou, 310022, China, 86 571-88122219.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|January 6, 2025
概括
一个新的肝癌风险评分有效地识别了需要查的个人. 这个简单的模型使用了诸如年龄,性别和病史等可访问的因素,以提高早期检测和患者存活率.
科学领域:
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肝癌在中国是一个重大的健康挑战.
- 有效的查策略需要人口分层.
- 早期检测对于改善患者生存率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种用于肝癌查的简单预测模型.
- 创建一个风险分数来分层一般人群.
- 为了提高肝癌的早期检测和生存率.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的队列研究,对153,082名年龄在40-74岁之间的居民进行了研究.
- 通过采访收集的数据,从2014年到2021年的未来后续行动.
- 考克斯比例危险回归用于识别预测因素并构建风险评分系统.
主要成果:
- 肝癌风险的关键预测因素包括年龄,男性性别,肝硬化,糖尿病和乙型肝炎表面抗原 (HBsAg) 状态.
- 预测模型显示出优异的区分 (AUC 0.707-0.831) 和校准.
- 高风险和中等风险组显示肝癌风险显著增加 (分别为11.88倍和3.51倍).
结论:
- 使用可访问的变量开发了一个简单的肝癌预测模型和风险得分.
- 该模型有效地识别了无症状的个体,以优先进行肝癌查.
- 开发的风险评分系统为基于人口的监测和早期检测提供了有价值的工具.
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