在碳边界调整背景下通过进口需求弹性评估出口脆弱性:关注土耳其
Tayfur Bayat1, Emre Ozsalman2, Omer Faruk Derindag3
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Inonu University, 44000, Malatya, Turkey.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|January 6, 2025
概括
土耳其土耳其土耳其 Türkiye
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 国际贸易政策 国际贸易政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 碳边界调整机制 (CBAM) 影响国际贸易和国家脱碳努力.
- 了解进口需求弹性 (IDE) 对于评估贸易政策影响至关重要.
- 根据新的气候法规,土耳其的出口部门面临着挑战.
研究的目的:
- 分析CBAM对土耳其对欧盟27国关键商品出口的影响.
- 为了估计水泥,肥料,化学品,钢铁和的进口需求弹性 (IDE).
- 根据CBAM,预测土耳其的潜在出口损失和价格上.
主要方法:
- 使用CCE和AMG方法的计量经济学分析来估计IDE.
- 2002-2021年间出口量和单位价格的分析.
- 对价格上和出口损失预测的基于场景的建模.
主要成果:
- 对于水泥 (1.95),钢铁 (1.85), (1.47),化肥/化学品 (1.20) 发现了高的IDE值.
- 根据CBAM,土耳其对27个欧盟的钢铁出口面临着大约25%的下降风险.
- 在分析的产品中,行业预计将受到CBAM的影响最小.
结论:
- 土耳其必须加快脱碳,以保持其在欧盟出口市场的份额.
- 高的IDE表明对CBAM相关的价格调整有很大的脆弱性.
- 积极的气候政策对于减轻与碳法规相关的贸易风险至关重要.
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