中国自身免疫性疾病的年龄标准化发病率,流行率,死亡率和未来预测:基于GBD 2021的系统分析
Yanhua Xiao1, Xuezhi Hong1, Ranjana Neelagar2
1Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Immunologic research
|January 6, 2025
概括
中国慢性疾病的趋势显示,自身免疫性疾病的发病率正在上升,特别是1型糖尿病 (T1DM) 和炎症性肠病 (IBD),而喘发病率正在下降. 管理策略必须解决疾病负担的增加以及死亡率的下降.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 慢性疾病趋势 慢性疾病趋势
- 自身免疫性疾病流行病学
背景情况:
- 评估主要慢性疾病的长期流行病学趋势对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 了解发病率,流行率和死亡率的变化,可以为有针对性的干预提供信息.
- 中国不断变化的医疗保健环境需要更新有关慢性疾病负担的数据.
研究的目的:
- 在中国 (1990-2021) 分析喘,T1DM,IBD,MS,牛皮和RA的年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR),流行率 (ASPR) 和死亡率 (ASMR).
- 预测这些条件的未来ASIR趋势到2046年.
- 确定中国慢性疾病流行病学中的关键人口和时间模式.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 使用joinpoint回归分析来确定趋势 (年度百分比变化-APC,平均APC-AAPC).
- 应用贝叶斯年龄期队列 (BAPC) 建模用于未来的ASIR预测.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,喘的ASIR最高 (364.17/100,000),其次是牛皮和RA;MS和IBD是最不常见的.
- 喘显示ASIR,ASPR和ASMR的数量有所下降. T1DM,牛皮和IBD显示ASIR和ASPR的增加,T1DM也显示ASMR的下降.
- 预测显示到2046年,T1DM,牛皮和RA ASIR的持续增加,而喘ASIR预计将减少.
结论:
- 中国的大多数自身免疫性疾病显示ASIR和ASPR的增加,与ASMR的下降形成鲜明对比,构成了双重的公共卫生挑战.
- 存在显著的性别差异,男性的T1DMASIR增加更高,女性的喘改善更大.
- 有针对性的预防和管理策略对于应对中国日益增长的慢性和自身免疫性疾病负担至关重要.
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