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加利福尼亚州监狱中的COVID-19繁殖数量和长期COVID患病率

Lee Worden¹, Rae Wannier², Helena Archer³

¹Francis I. Proctor Foundation, UCSF, San Francisco, Calif., USA.

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

|January 7, 2025

概括

加利福尼亚州监狱中的COVID-19疫情对黑人和土著人产生了不成比例的影响,导致长期COVID的病例估计为9,100-11,000例. 监狱住房类型并没有显著减少传播,突出显示出需要释放和改善护理.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
传染病建模传染病建模

背景情况:

监狱被认为是COVID-19热点,可能会加剧疾病负担的种族差异.
加利福尼亚州的州监狱系统经历了重大的COVID-19疫情,影响了该州相当一部分人口.

研究的目的:

为了统计地重建加利福尼亚监狱内的COVID-19传播途径.
估计监狱爆发导致的长期COVID的流行和分布.
评估监狱爆发对疾病负担种族差异的影响.

主要方法:

利用个人级别的疾病时间和每晚的房间分配数据.
使用统计建模来重建传输位置和路径.
估计的繁殖数和未观察到的感染事件.

主要成果:

实质性的COVID-19传播发生在宿舍和细胞住房中,无论门类型或季节如何.
在不同的住房配置中,有效繁殖数在0到5之间.
监狱爆发导致了加利福尼亚州黑人和土著人口不成比例的疾病负担.
估计有9,100-11,000人因监狱感染而患上长期COVID,其中1,700-2,000人经历了残疾后果.

结论:

仅仅对住房进行修改是不足以防止监狱中大量的COVID-19传播.
监狱爆发对长期的COVID流行有很大影响,不成比例地影响了少数群体.
紧急呼吁为长期COVID和脱狱的监禁人员提供高质量的医疗护理,以减轻未来的疫情.

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