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全球积累的热带气旋能量如何因气候变化而变化?
Kaiyue Shan1, Fengfei Song2, Yanluan Lin3
1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Science bulletin
|January 7, 2025
概括
全球热带气旋 (TC) 活动,以积累的气旋能量 (ACE) 衡量,显示了与十年间太平洋振荡 (IPO) 相关的显著十年间变化. 首次公开募股 (IPO) 是指IPO.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TC) 活动及其对气候变化的反应也在讨论中.
- 累积的气旋能量 (ACE) 是TC活动和相关损害的关键指标.
- 之前对全球ACE趋势的研究已经产生了不确定的结果.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球TC活动的十年间变化.
- 确定全球ACE和十年间太平洋振荡 (IPO) 之间的关系.
- 了解IPO影响TC活动的机制.
主要方法:
- 分析了四十年来全球累积的气旋能量 (ACE).
- 统计分析以确定ACE和十年间太平洋振荡 (IPO) 之间的相关性.
- 使用大气和合气候模型与规定的海面温度和IPO数据.
主要成果:
- 全球ACE表现出显著的十年间变化,在20世纪90年代达到顶峰.
- 在全球ACE和IPO之间发现了强烈的正相关性 (r=0.75,P<0.01).
- 积极的IPO阶段与TC频率和持续时间的增加有关,这是由于扩大的弱垂直风切削 (VWS) 条件.
结论:
- 十年间太平洋振荡 (IPO) 是全球热带气旋活动十年间变化的主要驱动因素.
- IPO调节大气循环,影响TC的空间和时间特征.
- 了解IPO的作用对于预测未来的TC活动在不断变化的气候中至关重要.
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