根据使用MaxEnt建模的关键气候因素,预测中国Prunus sibirica的未来进化趋势
Jiazhi Wang1,2,3, Jiming Cheng4,5, Chao Zhang4
1China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Xiong'an New Area 071800, China.
Biology
|January 8, 2025
概括
山 (Prunus sibirica) 的分布受六个主要气候因素的影响. 未来的气候变化可能会增加适合息地的数量,特别是在高排放场景下,区域变化很大.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 山 (Prunus sibirica) 在全球具有重要的农业和应用价值.
- 关于P. sibirica适合分布地区的现有研究仍然没有确定性.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响P. sibirica分布的关键环境因素.
- 预测P. sibirica在当前和未来气候场景下的潜在分布.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自全球生物多样性信息设施 (GBIF) 的分布数据.
- 采用集群分析来确定六个关键的环境因素.
- 应用最大模型 (MaxEnt) 进行分布建模和参数优化.
主要成果:
- 使用六个气候因素 (AUC = 0.897,TSS = 0.658) 的优化模型超过了使用十九个因素的模型.
- 季节性降水变化是最有影响力的因素.
- 未来的预测表明息地扩张,特别是在高排放场景下 (SSPs585),具有显著的区域变化和西藏潜在的新适合地区.
结论:
- 该研究提供了基于优化环境因素的P. sibirica分布的可靠预测.
- 未来的气候变化可能会改变适合的息地,增加总面积,但导致区域收缩和扩张.
- 季节性降水是该物种地理分布的关键决定因素.
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