可用的样本观察数量调节了徒在博行为中的谬论
1China Center for Behavioral Economics and Finance, School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Hongyuan Building 309, Liutai Road 555, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, China. wangd@swufe.edu.cn.
徒的谬论,一种投注偏见,受到观察到的结果信息量的影响. 更多的数据可以减少这种谬论,特别是在高概率的场景中,但个别因素也起着作用.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 徒谬误是一种认知偏见,个人错误地相信过去的随机事件会影响未来的独立结果.
- 这种误解在博行为中很普遍,通常是由观察结果序列引发的.
研究的目的:
- 调查观察结果信息的数量如何影响在重复投注场景中徒的谬论.
- 检查样本大小对徒谬论及其对应的热结果谬论的影响.
主要方法:
- 实验设计操纵了关于实现结果的信息量 (样本大小).
- 对博行为的分析与观察到的结果频率和持续时间相关.
- 包括个人差异变量,如性别,彩票经验和认知能力.
主要成果:
- 发现了徒谬论和热结果谬论的证据,分别与结果的频率和持续时间有关.
- 样本大小对徒谬误的影响随着获胜概率而变化:在低概率的情况下,边际增加,在50%以上概率的小样本中显著恶化,在较大的样本中显著减少.
- 个人因素,如性别,彩票经验和认知能力,调节了对信息数量的反应.
结论:
- 博谬误对上下文因素非常敏感,特别是可用的信息量.
- 投注中的决策是通过信息量,结果概率和个体特征之间的相互作用来调节的.
- 了解这些因素对于解决和减轻金融和博行为的认知偏见至关重要.
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