在后COVID-19大流行时代使用初级医疗保健数据的早期预警系统:巴西全国范围的案例研究
Thiago Cerqueira-Silva1, Juliane F Oliveira1, Vinicius de Araújo Oliveira1
1Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brasil.
Cadernos de saude publica
|January 8, 2025
概括
通过综合征监测,初级医疗保健数据有效地检测到巴西的呼吸道疫情. 这种早期预警系统提高了公共卫生响应的及时性,尽管结合策略可以提高准确性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 使用初级卫生保健 (PHC) 数据的综合征监测显示了早期发现疫情的前景,包括COVID-19.
- 它在COVID-19后的呼吸系统疾病监测时代的实用性仍未得到充分探索.
研究的目的:
- 用PHC数据分析综合征监测的有效性,以检测巴西的呼吸道疾病爆发.
- 为了比较EARS (早期偏差报告系统) 和EVI (流行病脆弱性指数) 在预测异常方面的表现.
主要方法:
- 来自巴西统一国家卫生系统 (2022年10月 - 2023年7月) 每周遇到呼吸道疾病的分析.
- 应用EARS (C1,C2,C3变异) 和EVI来估计疫情检测的每周值.
- 使用呼吸道疾病住院数据对异常进行分类.
主要成果:
- 在116个地区发现了119个异常.
- EARS-C2的早期报警率最高 (68%),而EARS-C1的早期报警率最低 (60%).
- 真正阳性率在8.7% (EARS-C1) 到11.6% (EARS-C3) 之间.
结论:
- 常规收集的PHC数据是检测巴西呼吸道疫情的可行工具.
- 综合症监测可以提高公共卫生战略的及时性,但需要补充方法来提高针对性和准确性,以进行强有力的疫情应对.
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