预测消化系统瘤患者的自杀风险:一项回顾性队列研究
Weibo Li1, Longjiang Chen2, Wei Wang3
1Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Institute of Hepatobiliary Diseases of Wuhan University, Transplant Center of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Surgery
|January 8, 2025
概括
在消化系统瘤患者中确定了自杀风险因素. 开发了一种预测模型,以帮助临床决策和对这一弱势群体进行干预.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 自杀是患有消化系统瘤的患者的一个担忧,但研究是有限的.
- 这项研究解决了更好地理解和预测这一群体中自杀风险的需要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定影响消化系统瘤患者自杀的因素.
- 开发一种临床上适用的自杀风险预测模型,用于这个患者群体.
- 为临床干预提供参考.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库的173,804名被诊断为消化系统瘤的患者 (1998-2015) 的数据.
- 采用拉索和后勤回归来识别自杀预测因子,可视化使用名图.
- 通过ROC曲线,校准和决策曲线分析评估了诺莫格拉姆的准确性和临床实用性.
主要成果:
- 确定年龄,性别,瘤等级,分期,手术,化疗,婚姻状况和居住地作为独立的自杀预测因素.
- 开发了一个名图,AUC为0.78,显示出高预测准确度.
- 通过校准和决策曲线分析验证了nomogram的临床适用性.
结论:
- 确定了影响消化系统瘤患者自杀的关键因素.
- 开发了一个强大的预测模型来指导临床决策和干预.
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