评估人类活动对洪水严重性及其在珍珠河三角洲的空间异质性的影响
Jing Zhang1, Longfei Yu2, Jialong Sun3
1Powerchina Eco-environmental Group Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518101, China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 8, 2025
概括
气候变化增加了灾难的发生频率. 在中国的珍珠河三角洲 (PRD),人类活动加剧了沿海地区的洪水严重程度,特别是长期极端事件,而内陆地区则有所减少.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化和人类活动正在增加洪水等极端天气事件的频率和强度.
- 这些事件对人类生命,财产和全球经济发展构成重大威胁.
- 珍珠河三角洲 (PRD) 是一个人口密的地区,容易受到水文变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查人类活动对珍珠河三角洲 (PRD) 洪水严重性的影响.
- 量化极端水位的变化及其不同时间段的空间模式.
- 为人类影响的河流流域的洪水灾害减缓战略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用极端价值理论和概率分布来分析洪水严重程度.
- 对比了两个时期的极端水位数据:1966-1990年和1991-2016年.
- 检查了PRD各地洪水严重程度变化的空间模式.
主要成果:
- 洪水严重程度在内陆PRD地区下降,但在沿海PRD地区增加.
- 沿海地区的长期回归水位的洪水严重程度比短时间回归水位增加得更大.
- 人类活动显然影响了极端水位的空间异质性.
结论:
- 人类活动改变了PRD的洪水严重性模式,沿海地区面临着更高的风险.
- 这些发现突出了对应人类影响的适应性洪水管理策略的需要.
- 拟议的方法对于评估由于人类干预而经历水文变化的地区的洪水严重性是有效的.
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