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对过敏性鼻炎的预测模型的构建和验证,使患有支气管喘的儿童复杂化
Qi Zhang1, Fengqin Xu2, Fuzhe Chen2
1Department of Pediatric Respiratory Medicine, Anhui Provincial Children's Hospital, Hefei City, Anhui Province, China; zq_dr26@163.com.
家庭吸烟,IgE升高,早期使用抗生素以及CRP,WBC和NLR等炎症标志物是患有喘儿童过敏鼻炎的关键危险因素. 一个名ogram模型有助于预测这种常见的并发症.
科学领域:
- 儿科过敏和免疫学
- 呼吸系统医学 呼吸系统医学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 过敏性鼻炎经常使儿童的支气管喘复杂化,影响疾病管理和患者的治疗结果.
- 确定过敏性鼻炎的预测因素对于儿童喘患者的早期干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在患有支气管喘的儿童中调查与过敏性鼻炎相关的因素.
- 在这个人群中开发和验证一个用于预测过敏性鼻炎的诺莫格拉姆模型.
主要方法:
- 对190名患有支气管喘的儿童进行了回顾性分析,分为培训 (133) 和验证 (57) 队列.
- 多变量后勤回归确定了风险因素,包括家庭吸烟,IgE,早期使用抗生素,C反应蛋白 (CRP),白细胞计数 (WBC) 和中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率 (NLR).
- 构建并验证了一个名ogram预测模型,C指数为0.919 (培训) 和0.841 (验证).
主要成果:
- 过敏性鼻炎并发症的发生率为32.63% (62/190名儿童).
- 确定的危险因素包括家庭吸烟者,IgE升高,早期使用抗生素,以及较高的CRP,WBC和NLR水平.
- 诺莫格拉姆模型在两个队列中都表现出良好的预测准确性和临床实用性.
结论:
- 家庭吸烟,IgE水平,早期抗生素暴露和炎症标志物 (CRP,WBC,NLR) 是患有喘儿童过敏鼻炎的重要危险因素.
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型作为一种有价值的临床工具,用于预测被诊断为支气管喘的儿童的过敏性鼻炎.
- 这种预测模型可以为儿科喘患者的并发性过敏性鼻炎提供有针对性的预防和管理策略.
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