在不确定条件下确定开放式煤矿的生产能力:基于规模经济的模型
Shuai Wang1, Bo Cao1, Runcai Bai1
1College of Mining, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin, Liaoning Province, People's Republic of China.
PloS one
|January 9, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了开采煤矿产能规划的新模型,考虑到经济和技术的不确定性. 它提供了承受风险的建议,以优化生产能力,尽管成本和价格波动.
科学领域:
- 采矿工程 采矿工程 采矿工程
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 由于经济和技术的不确定性,露天采矿产能规划是复杂的.
- 现有的模型可能无法充分解决这些不确定性的多方面的性质.
研究的目的:
- 为开放式煤矿开发一个强大的生产能力规划模型.
- 将规模经济和多重不确定性限制纳入能力规划.
- 为分析不确定性对总收入的影响提供一个框架.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于规模经济理论的容量规划模型.
- 将多个不确定性约束集成到模型中.
- 提出了一种新的方法来量化和传播关键控制因素的不确定性.
- 为总收入建立了一个全面的不确定性分析框架.
主要成果:
- 使用案例研究量化生产成本 (-13.05%, +27.68%) 和煤炭价格 (-10.79%, +10.79%) 的不确定性.
- 在多个不确定性下制定了总收入的数学表达式.
- 考虑到确定的不确定性,计算了最佳容量范围.
结论:
- 开发的模型有效地解决了开放式煤矿产能规划中的不确定性.
- 承受风险的能力规划建议可以减轻不确定性的影响.
- 该研究为优化不稳定条件下的矿山运营提供了实际见解.
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