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在未来的气候场景下,对潜在的HAB进行水文和水质评估

Dipesh Nepal¹, Prem Parajuli¹

¹Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS, 39762, United States.

Journal of environmental management

|January 9, 2025

概括

有害的藻类繁殖 (HABs) 是一个越来越大的威胁. 这项研究将HAB与河流流量和水质联系起来,预计由于气候变化,俄俄河流域未来的风险增加,需要采取缓解策略.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
水文学水文学
生态生态学生态生态学

背景情况:

有害藻类繁殖 (HABs) 对美国各地的人类健康和水生生态系统构成重大威胁.
了解水文条件和HAB之间的关系对于有效管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

调查溪流流量,水质参数和HAB发生之间的关系.
通过水文模型和气候预测,评估俄俄河流域未来HAB的潜力.

主要方法:

使用土壤和水资源评估工具 (SWAT) 进行水文建模.
校准和验证了SWAT模型使用流量,总悬浮固体 (TSS) 和溶解氧 (DO) 数据.
在RCP 4.5下使用加拿大区域气候模型 (CRCM5) 进行未来气候预测和洪水频率分析.

主要成果:

2015年HABs事件与高流量紧随其后的低流量有关,表明营养物质运输和减少冲洗的模式.
预计气候变化显示温度 (5%),流量 (15%) 和TSS (28%) 的增加,DO (8%) 的减少.
洪水频率分析显示,在当前条件下,2015年HAB相关的峰值流量的概率为3%,在未来二十年内增加到20%.

结论:

水文条件,特别是流量变化和水质,是HAB形成的关键驱动因素.
预计未来的气候变化将增加俄俄河流域HAB的概率和风险.
积极实施缓解措施至关重要,以应对HAB不断升级的威胁.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化洪水的频率洪水的频率有害的藻类有害的藻类水文学水文学流的流量流的流量水的质量水的质量

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