模拟撒哈拉以南非洲的混合作物和牲畜系统和气候影响评估
Amit Kumar Srivastava1,2, Jaber Rahimi3,4, Karam Alsafadi5,6
1Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115, Bonn, Germany. amit@uni-bonn.de.
Scientific reports
|January 9, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着撒哈拉以南非洲的混合作物和牲畜系统. 增强型建模项目显著减少了农作物和牲畜生产,影响了西非的粮食安全和排放.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的小农混合作物-牲畜 (MCL) 系统面临着气候变化带来的重大挑战.
- 这些挑战影响着食品和料生产,威胁着生计和区域粮食安全.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合作物-植被-牲畜模型来增强 SIMPLACE 建模框架.
- 发展可持续的农业实践,以适应气候变化.
- 估计未来气候情景对西非农业组成部分的影响.
主要方法:
- 将作物-植物-牲畜模型纳入SIMPLACE框架.
- 加强框架应用于西非的一个域名 (786,500平方公里).
- 利用动态缩小的全球循环模型 (GCM) 对未来气候情景 (2020-2050) 的预测.
主要成果:
- 该框架准确估计了过去的农业成分 (1981-2005).
- 未来的预测表明,北方地区的作物生物量 (高达-56%) 和草地生物量 (高达-57%) 显著下降.
- 这导致萨赫勒地区的牲畜数量减少 (高达-43%),牛奶 (-41%) 和肉类 (-47%) 产量减少,CH4排放量减少 (-47%).
结论:
- 气候变化的影响在西非域内高度变化.
- 苏丹地区的口袋可能会增加牲畜和CH4排放 (+24%),突出显示复杂的区域反应.
- 增强的 SIMPLACE 框架为在 SSA 开发适应气候的农业战略提供了关键的见解.
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