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驱动力分析和景观生态风险的多场景模拟在江汉平原,中国
Heng Liu1,2, Lu Zhou1, Diwei Tang3
1Hubei Key Laboratory of Biologic Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi, 445000, Hubei Province, China.
Scientific reports
|January 9, 2025
概括
江汉平原的土地利用变化增加了生态风险,主要是城市化带来的. 未来的风险取决于发展情景,强调需要生态保护规划,以确保粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 江汉平原 (JHP) 的土地利用变化是一个重要的粮食生产区域,影响景观结构和生态风险,威胁到粮食安全.
- 评估和预测生态风险趋势对于有效管理和保障该地区的粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2020年在JHP的景观生态风险 (LER) 的时空特征.
- 使用地理探测器模型识别影响LER模式的关键驱动因素.
- 使用马尔科夫-PLUS模型模拟各种土地使用场景下的未来LER趋势.
主要方法:
- 通过整合景观指数构建景观生态风险 (LER) 指数.
- 对LER模式的时空空间分析.
- 应用GeoDetector模型来识别影响因素.
- 使用马尔科夫-PLUS模型在四个场景 (自然,经济发展,耕地,生态保护) 下模拟未来的LER.
主要成果:
- 农田占主导地位,大量转化为建筑用地,并与水体相互转化.
- LER最初增加,然后下降,主要是中高风险水平,空间集中在东南部.
- NDVI是影响LER的主要因素,表明自然环境的重要作用.
- 在自然和经济发展场景中,土地使用强度更高,与耕地和生态保护场景相比,预计到2030年LER将更高.
结论:
- 土地使用变化在JHP中显著改变了LER,而城市化是关键驱动因素.
- 生态风险受到自然和人为因素的组合的影响,其中植被覆盖面 (NDVI) 主导.
- 未来的LER预测表明,生态保护场景对于减轻风险和确保长期可持续性至关重要.
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