解开中国气候变化引起的复合低太阳低风极端现象
Licheng Wang1,2, Yawen Liu3, Lei Zhao4,5
1College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
National science review
|January 10, 2025
概括
由于低太阳低风 (LSLW) 极端,中国面临可再生能源的风险. 这些由气候变化驱动的事件将增加,需要紧急适应能源安全战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 中国的碳中和目标取决于太阳能和风能.
- 低太阳低风 (LSLW) 极端构成了对可再生能源可靠性的重大,未经研究的威胁.
- 现有的研究往往忽略了复合极端事件及其潜在机制.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国各地复合LSLW极端的动态演变和机制.
- 评估这些极端对可再生能源发电可靠性的影响.
- 在不同的气候场景下,预测LSLW事件频率的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 将多模型气候模拟与诊断分析结合起来.
- 调查地形影响LSLW事件频率的情况.
- 评估可再生能源资源可用性和分布尾部的变化.
主要成果:
- 发现全国平均每年有16.4个LSLW极端天,具有显著的区域差异和地形依赖.
- 在LSLW事件期间,中国东部经历了可再生能源资源的严重减少 (约. 低于平均水平的80%.
- 根据未来的情景 (SSP126至SSP370),低低频极端频率预计将大幅增加 (12.4%至60.2%),主要是由于温度梯度减弱,云层覆盖增加和气溶.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将加剧LSLW事件的发生,对中国的可再生能源转型构成重大风险.
- 这些复合极端变化是可预测的,而不是随机的,需要积极的适应策略.
- 这些发现对中国和其他国家在气候变化中转向可再生能源系统至关重要.
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