评估高速公路和铁路级别交叉口的撞击严重程度,使用基于分析层次的过程危险指数模型
Amin Keramati1, Pan Lu2, Afrooz Moatari-Kazerouni3
1Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management, School of Business Administration, Widener University Chester PA USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|January 10, 2025
概括
高速公路-铁路级别交叉口 (HRGC) 的安全性通过新的分析层次过程危险指数 (AHP-HI) 模型得到改善. 该工具根据事故严重程度的风险对交叉口进行排名,确定有针对性的安全资金的高风险地点.
科学领域:
- 运输安全运输安全
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 交通工程是交通工程.
背景情况:
- 在高速公路和铁路交叉口 (HRGCs) 发生的碰撞是严重的,因为火车和车辆之间的质量差异很大.
- 需要有系统的框架来分配资金,以提高高风险HRGC的安全性.
- 现有的方法,如危险指数和预测模型,在预测事故严重程度的可能性方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的混合危险排名模型,即分析层次过程危险指数 (AHP-HI).
- 开发一种决策工具,根据潜在的事故严重程度对HRGC进行排名.
- 根据预测的撞击严重程度概率对HRGC进行排名的尚未探索的领域进行解决.
主要方法:
- 该研究将分析层次流程 (AHP) 与竞争风险模型 (CRM) 整合在一起.
- 开发了AHP-HI模型,以估计HRGCs中碰撞严重程度的可能性.
- 使用AHP-HI模型对北达科他州公共级别交叉路口进行风险分析.
主要成果:
- AHP-HI模型有效地将公共级别交叉路口分为四个不同的风险级别.
- 一个重要的发现是,北达科他州4.73%的公路交叉口是高风险的.
- 该模型为HRGC安全决策提供了一个全面的框架.
结论:
- AHP-HI模型提供了一种强大的方法,通过撞击严重性风险对HRGC进行排名.
- 这项研究为优先考虑在最危险的十字路口进行安全改进提供了有价值的工具.
- 这些发现支持数据驱动的资源分配,以提高HRGC的安全性.
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