根据气候变化下的每日SPEI,描述中国东北部大米生长期干旱的特征
Tangzhe Nie1, Xiu Liu1, Peng Chen2
1School of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 11, 2025
概括
预计气候变化将增加黑龙江省大米干旱的严重程度,降雨将显著影响干旱状况. 了解这些干旱特征对于未来的农业水资源管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在关键作物生长阶段的干旱严重阻碍了农业生产.
- 标准化降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 是准确描述干旱的一个有价值的工具.
- 了解区域干旱特征对于适应气候变化的农业实践至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种气候变化情景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 调查黑龙江省大米生长季节干旱的空间和时间特征.
- 分析气候变化对这个寒冷的农业地区干旱特征的影响.
- 为优化农业水资源管理提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 采用统计下调,从CMIP6预测 (2015-2100) 中获得每日降水量 (P),最大空气温度 (T) 和最小空气温度 (T) 的数据.
- 使用粮农组织推的Hargreaves公式与回归校正计算潜在的蒸发转化率 (PET).
- 每日SPEI计算用于分类干旱严重程度,并使用Pearson相关性来评估气象因素,PET和SPEI之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 降水 (P) 趋势显示,从西北向东南增加,而温度 (T,T) 则从东北向西南和东向西相应增加.
- 潜在蒸发透气 (PET) 在所有情景中呈现上升趋势,中西部地区 (4.86.0 mm/d) 的值更高.
- 干旱的严重程度因场景而异,SSP1-2.6经历了轻度至中度干旱,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5面临轻度,中度和严重的干旱. 耕作阶段的干旱频率和强度最高.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将增加黑龙江省的干旱频率和强度,尤其影响到大米耕种阶段.
- 降水 (P) 被确定为SPEI的主要驱动因素,而温度 (T) 影响PET最为显著.
- 这些发现提供了对大米干旱敏感性的关键见解,并为中国东北部未来的农业水资源管理战略提供了信息.
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