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根据优化的MaxEnt建模,预测气候变化下的L. nitraria的全球分布

Ke Lu¹, Mili Liu¹, Qi Feng²

¹Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, College of Life Science, Yulin University, Yulin 719000, China.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland)

|January 11, 2025

概括

尼特拉里亚L.植物,重要的沙漠沙子固定者,由于气候变化而面临息地收缩. 预计未来适合地区将向西北转移,影响中亚,北非和澳大利亚.

科学领域:

生态学和生物地理学
环境科学环境科学
植物科学植物科学

背景情况:

尼特拉里亚L.物种是关键的三级-残留沙漠沙子固定植物.
这些植物作为重要的料,农产品和药用和木质植物油的来源.
了解它们的分布是保护和利用的关键.

研究的目的:

为保护和利用Nitraria L.物种提供理论基础.
在当前和未来的场景下模拟和分析Nitraria L.在全球适合的分布区域.

主要方法:

收集了Nitraria L.和29个环境/气候因素的全球分布数据.
使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型进行分布模拟.
分析了影响分布的关键环境变量,包括UV-B季节性,最低月份的UV-B,最温暖季度的降水,数字海拔模型 (DEM) 和年度降水.

主要成果:

马克森特模型显示出极好的预测准确性 (平均AUC=0.897,TSS=0.913).
影响分布的关键因素是UV-B季节性 (54.4%),最低月份的UV-B (11.1%),最温暖季度的降水 (8.3%),DEM (7.4%) 和年度降水 (4.1%).
目前的分布集中在中亚,北非,中东,澳大利亚南部和西伯利亚. 未来的预测表明适合地区的下降趋势,在南亚,北非和澳大利亚显著收缩,并扩展到青海-西藏高原,伊朗高原和撒哈拉沙漠.

结论:

温室气体度的上升正在加剧Nitraria L.的息地碎片化.
预计潜在的适合地区将向西北转移.
这些发现为息地保护,恢复,资源管理和Nitraria L.的工业发展提供了基础.

关键词:

尼特拉里亚 L. 尼特拉里亚气候变化场景气候变化场景利基化建模利基化建模优化了MaxEnt模型的优化种类分布模型,物种分布模型.

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