药品公共支出预测:对方法的审查
Irina Odnoletkova1, Patrice X Chalon2, Stephan Devriese2
1Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre, Brussels, Belgium. Irina.Odnoletkova@kce.fgov.be.
PharmacoEconomics
|January 11, 2025
概括
预测公共药品支出是一项挑战. 使用历史数据和地平线扫描的短期"自下而上"模型比长期预测更准确.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 制药政策 制药政策
背景情况:
- 预测公共药品支出给医疗保健支付者带来了重大挑战,因为市场动态和经济影响不可预测.
- 缺乏用于制药支出预测的既定最佳实践方法.
- 文献区分了自上而下的 (历史趋势) 和自下而上的 (历史和地平线扫描数据) 方法.
研究的目的:
- 审查和描述"自下而上的"方法来预测公共药品支出.
- 综合现有关于这些自下而上的方法预测准确性的知识.
主要方法:
- 在MEDLINE,EMBASE和EconLit中进行了系统的文献搜索,以及来自国际卫生组织和国家卫生保健当局的灰色文献.
- 包括2000年至2024年的出版物,详细介绍了西方经济体的预测方法.
- 总结了数据来源,假设,分析方法和预测结果.
主要成果:
- 24个出版物描述了9种不同的支出预测模型,涵盖了各种国家和药物类型 (例如孤儿药物,精神药物).
- 模型利用历史索赔或销售数据进行趋势分析,并对新药推出和专利到期进行地平线扫描.
- 预测准确度在一年以后显著下降;错误主要是由于新的市场推出和政策改革. 经过验证的模型显示了很小的绝对百分比差异 (0.3%-2%).
结论:
- 已公布的国家制药支出预测是有限的,并且在方法上有所不同.
- 使用可靠的历史数据和地平线扫描的短期预测比基于假设的长期预测更准确.
- 将数学算法与专家判断相结合,需要进一步调查,以提高预测的准确性和效率.
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